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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.